However, the delta variant may change that, as both Moderna and Pfizer are suggesting booster shots are necessary. And the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recently authorized a third dose for people with weakened immune systems. Meanwhile, a new study has found the Johnson & Johnson vaccine to be highly effective against the delta variant, so booster shots may not be necessary for individuals who receive that vaccine.
The underdog vaccine?
Johnson & Johnson expects to make $2.5 billion in revenue from its COVID-19 vaccine in 2021. That’s a drop in the bucket for the mammoth business, which generated more than $80 billion in revenue in 2020.
Moderna’s vaccine sales could reach $20 billion by the end of this year. And that’s still well behind Pfizer, which estimates its vaccine sales will hit $33.5 billion this year as it leads the way, producing up to 3 billion doses in 2021.
Johnson & Johnson only expects to produce up to 600 million doses of its single-shot vaccine this year, down from its earlier target of 1 billion.
High effectiveness against the delta variant
A new study from South Africa, called Sisonke, has shown Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine to be highly effective against one of the most concerning variants around right now — delta. The trial is massive and involves 480,000 healthcare workers (Johnson & Johnson’s initial phase 3 trial was relatively large and had only 45,000 participants). Although the data hasn’t been peer-reviewed, the initial numbers are extremely encouraging — showing 71% efficacy in preventing hospitalizations in delta-related cases. And in terms of preventing death, the overall efficacy rose to 96%.
By comparison, studies on two doses of the Pfizer vaccine suggest efficacy rates could range between 42% and 96% against delta. Moderna has also had varying efficacy rates but it looks to be a bit higher, at around 76%. But what’s common to both is that people need two doses of the vaccine, as a single dose offers weaker protection. And that’s where the advantage could sway significantly in Johnson & Johnson’s favor as its single-shot vaccine would be significantly easier to administer.
